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NLD Nederländerna - Eerste Divisie · Match ·

Ajax reserver vs Helmond Sport

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–12.78 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger39%
Oavgjort28%
Bortaseger33%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Ajax reserverHelmond Sport
Expected goals2.78Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över53% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
39% / 28% / 33%MatchresultatHemmaseger39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.4%)Dubbelchans1271.6%1.40
Över 53% · Under 47%Goals 2.5Över53%1.89
Ja 57% · Nej 43%Båda lagen gör målJa57%1.75
2.78 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.2 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Ajax reserver win39%2.56
Oavgjort28%3.57
Helmond Sport win33%3.03

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ajax reserver1.49

Hemma share of expected goals 53.6%

Total expected goals2.78Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 53% · Under 47%

Helmond Sport1.29

Borta share of expected goals 46.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nej 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Ajax reserver

0.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Poäng0

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Helmond Sport

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
33%
0
Points from supplied form
5
1.49
Expected goals
1.29
Ajax reserverHelmond Sport
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ajax reserver signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Helmond Sport signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Ajax reserver vs Helmond Sport FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ajax reserver vunnen 39%,Oavgjort 28%,Helmond Sport vunnen 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.78 · Över 2.5 53% · Current selection Över