Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
46% / 28% / 26%Match resultHome win46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (25.7%)Double chance1X74.3%1.35
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Yes 53% · No 47%Both teams scoreYes53%1.89
2.73 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
8.8 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin7.3%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Spartak Varna win46%2.172.0545.5%+0.5 pp
Draw28%3.573.2528.7%-0.7 pp
Septemvri Sofia win26%3.853.6025.9%+0.1 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 61.5%
Total expected goals2.73Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%
Away share of expected goals 38.5%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.00pts / matchSpartak Varna
LWWDW
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
0.40pts / matchSeptemvri Sofia
LLLDD
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
46%
Win probability excluding draw
26%10
Points from supplied form
21.68
Expected goals
1.05Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.
Match questions
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Spartak Varna win 46%，Draw 28%，Septemvri Sofia win 26%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.73 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over。