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BGR Bulgarie - Parva liga · Final ·

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia

Prediction review

Domicile form
Final score0–1Pronostic 2–1
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile46%
Nul28%
Victoire à l’extérieur26%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 46% selection probability
Prediction Perdu
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile46% selection probability
Projected score2–1Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de51% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
46% / 28% / 26%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (25.7%)Double chance1X74.3%1.35
Plus de 51% · Moins de 49%Goals 2.5Plus de51%1.96
Oui 53% · Non 47%Les deux équipes marquentOui53%1.89
2.73 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
8.8 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.3%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Spartak Varna win46%2.172.0545.5%+0.5 pp
Nul28%3.573.2528.7%-0.7 pp
Septemvri Sofia win26%3.853.6025.9%+0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Spartak Varna1.68

Domicile share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 51% · Moins de 49%

Septemvri Sofia1.05

Extérieur share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 53% · Non 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

2.00pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.40pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Gagné probability excluding draw
26%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.68
Expected goals
1.05
Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Spartak Varna signalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Septemvri Sofia signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Spartak Varna victoire 46%,Nul 28%,Septemvri Sofia victoire 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Plus de 2.5 51% · Current selection Plus de