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CHL Chile Primera B · Round 19 ·

Santiago Wanderers vs San Marcos De Arica

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.16 expected goals
Away form
Home win43%
Draw28%
Away win29%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win43% selection probability
Projected score1–1Santiago WanderersSan Marcos De Arica
Expected goals2.16Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under63% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
43% / 28% / 29%Match resultHome win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Double chance1272%1.39
Over 37% · Under 63%Goals 2.5Under63%1.59
Yes 43% · No 57%Both teams scoreNo57%1.75
2.16 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.3%Largest probability gapSantiago Wanderers winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Santiago Wanderers win43%2.332.0543.4%-0.4 pp
Draw28%3.573.2027.8%+0.2 pp
San Marcos De Arica win29%3.453.1028.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Santiago Wanderers1.24

Home share of expected goals 57.4%

Total expected goals2.16Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 37% · Under 63%

San Marcos De Arica0.92

Away share of expected goals 42.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 43% · No 57%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Santiago Wanderers

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

San Marcos De Arica

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Win probability excluding draw
29%
10
Points from supplied form
7
1.24
Expected goals
0.92
Santiago WanderersSan Marcos De Arica
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Santiago Wanderers signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02San Marcos De Arica signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Santiago Wanderers vs San Marcos De Arica FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Santiago Wanderers win 43%,Draw 28%,San Marcos De Arica win 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.16 · Over 2.5 37% · Current selection Under