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DEU Germany 3. Liga · Round 1 ·

FC Ingolstadt vs Wurzburger Kickers

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.16 expected goals
Away form
Home win45%
Draw23%
Away win32%
Baseline forecastHome winTier C · 45% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win45% selection probability
Projected score2–1FC IngolstadtWurzburger Kickers
Expected goals3.16Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over61% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes63% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
45% / 23% / 32%Match resultHome win45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.3%)Double chance1276.7%1.30
Over 61% · Under 39%Goals 2.5Over61%1.64
Yes 63% · No 37%Both teams scoreYes63%1.59
3.16 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.6 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
FC Ingolstadt win45%2.22
Draw23%4.35
Wurzburger Kickers win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Ingolstadt1.73

Home share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals3.16Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 61% · Under 39%

Wurzburger Kickers1.43

Away share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 63% · No 37%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FC Ingolstadt

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Wurzburger Kickers

0.00pts / match
Played0Wins0Drawn0Losses0Points0

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Win probability excluding draw
32%
12
Points from supplied form
0
1.73
Expected goals
1.43
FC IngolstadtWurzburger Kickers
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Ingolstadt signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Wurzburger Kickers signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

FC Ingolstadt vs Wurzburger Kickers FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Ingolstadt win 45%,Draw 23%,Wurzburger Kickers win 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.16 · Over 2.5 61% · Current selection Over