Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
49% / 28% / 23%Match resultHome win49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Moreirense win (23.4%)Double chance1X76.6%1.31
Over 54% · Under 46%Goals 2.5Over54%1.85
Yes 57% · No 43%Both teams scoreYes57%1.75
2.85 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
8.8 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapFC Arouca winDifference-0.3 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FC Arouca win49%2.041.9149.3%-0.3 pp
Draw28%3.573.4027.7%+0.3 pp
Moreirense win23%4.354.1023%0.0 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 56.8%
Total expected goals2.85Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 54% · Under 46%
Away share of expected goals 43.2%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.00pts / matchFC Arouca
WWWDL
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.60pts / matchMoreirense
DWDLW
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
49%
Win probability excluding draw
23%10
Points from supplied form
81.62
Expected goals
1.23FC AroucaMoreirense
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.
Match questions
FC Arouca vs Moreirense FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
FC Arouca win 49%，Draw 28%，Moreirense win 23%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.85 · Over 2.5 54% · Current selection Over。