Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
65% / 20% / 16%Match resultHome win65%1.54
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win (15.7%)Double chance1X84.3%1.19
Over 70% · Under 30%Goals 2.5Over70%1.43
Yes 64% · No 36%Both teams scoreYes64%1.56
3.59 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
10.6 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin6.7%Largest probability gapBeijing Guoan winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Beijing Guoan win65%1.541.4564.6%+0.4 pp
Draw20%5.004.7519.7%+0.3 pp
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win16%6.256.0015.6%+0.4 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 66.9%
Total expected goals3.59Open
Dedicated goals model: Over 70% · Under 30%
Away share of expected goals 33.1%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 64% · No 36%Match profileOpen
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.20pts / matchBeijing Guoan
WDDWW
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11
SignalHome unbeaten 5/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.20pts / matchShenzhen Xinpengcheng
WLLWL
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6
SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
65%
Win probability excluding draw
16%11
Points from supplied form
62.40
Expected goals
1.19Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 20%.
Match questions
Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 65% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Beijing Guoan win 65%，Draw 20%，Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win 16%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 3.59 · Over 2.5 70% · Current selection Over。