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CHN China Super League · Round 21 ·

Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.62 expected goals
Away form
Home win30%
Draw25%
Away win45%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win45% selection probability
Projected score2–2Yunnan YukunChengdu Rongcheng
Expected goals3.62Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over70% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes69% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
30% / 25% / 45%Match resultAway win45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.3%)Double chance1274.7%1.34
Over 70% · Under 30%Goals 2.5Over70%1.43
Yes 69% · No 31%Both teams scoreYes69%1.45
3.62 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
10.0 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Yunnan Yukun win30%3.33
Draw25%4.00
Chengdu Rongcheng win45%2.22

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Yunnan Yukun1.54

Home share of expected goals 42.5%

Total expected goals3.62Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 70% · Under 30%

Chengdu Rongcheng2.08

Away share of expected goals 57.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 69% · No 31%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Yunnan Yukun

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Chengdu Rongcheng

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn4Losses0Points7

SignalHome unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
30%
Win probability excluding draw
45%
7
Points from supplied form
7
1.54
Expected goals
2.08
Yunnan YukunChengdu Rongcheng
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Yunnan Yukun signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chengdu Rongcheng signalHome unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–2 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Yunnan Yukun win 30%,Draw 25%,Chengdu Rongcheng win 45%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.62 · Over 2.5 70% · Current selection Over