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CHN China Super League · Meci ·

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–13.59 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde65%
Egal20%
Victorie oaspeți16%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 65% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde65% selection probability
Projected score2–1Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Expected goals3.59Deschide match profile
Goals 2.5Peste70% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
65% / 20% / 16%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde65%1.54
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win (15.7%)Șansă dublă1X84.3%1.19
Peste 70% · Sub 30%Goals 2.5Peste70%1.43
Da 64% · Nu 36%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa64%1.56
3.59 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
10.6 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.7%Largest probability gapBeijing Guoan winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Beijing Guoan win65%1.541.4564.6%+0.4 pp
Egal20%5.004.7519.7%+0.3 pp
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win16%6.256.0015.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Beijing Guoan2.40

Gazde share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals3.59Deschide

Dedicated goals model: Peste 70% · Sub 30%

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1.19

Oaspeți share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 64% · Nu 36%Match profileDeschide
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Beijing Guoan

2.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puncte11

SignalGazde unbeaten 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Puncte6

SignalGazde clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
65%
Câștig probability excluding draw
16%
11
Points from supplied form
6
2.40
Expected goals
1.19
Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Beijing Guoan signalGazde unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Shenzhen Xinpengcheng signalGazde clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk35% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 65% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Beijing Guoan câștig 65%,Egal 20%,Shenzhen Xinpengcheng câștig 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.59 · Peste 2.5 70% · Current selection Peste