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CHN China Super League · Partida ·

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score2–13.59 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa65%
Empate20%
Vitória visitante16%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 65% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa65% selection probability
Projected score2–1Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Expected goals3.59Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Acima70% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamSim64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Acima 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
65% / 20% / 16%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa65%1.54
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win (15.7%)Dupla Chance1X84.3%1.19
Acima 70% · Abaixo 30%Goals 2.5Acima70%1.43
Sim 64% · Não 36%Ambas as equipes marcamSim64%1.56
3.59 total expected goalsPlacar exato2–1
10.6 expected match cornersEscanteiosAcima 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.7%Largest probability gapBeijing Guoan winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Beijing Guoan win65%1.541.4564.6%+0.4 pp
Empate20%5.004.7519.7%+0.3 pp
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win16%6.256.0015.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Beijing Guoan2.40

Mandante share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals3.59Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Acima 70% · Abaixo 30%

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1.19

Visitante share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitSim 64% · Não 36%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Beijing Guoan

2.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Pontos11

SignalMandante unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

1.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Pontos6

SignalMandante clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
65%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
16%
11
Points from supplied form
6
2.40
Expected goals
1.19
Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Beijing Guoan signalMandante unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Shenzhen Xinpengcheng signalMandante clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk35% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 2–1 · 65% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Beijing Guoan ganhou 65%,Empate 20%,Shenzhen Xinpengcheng ganhou 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.59 · Acima 2.5 70% · Current selection Acima