Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
41% / 29% / 29%Match resultHome win41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.2%)Double chance1270.8%1.41
Over 66% · Under 34%Goals 2.5Over66%1.52
Yes 57% · No 43%Both teams scoreYes57%1.75
3.38 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapAlverca B winDifference-2.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
UD da Serra win41%2.442.3039.1%+1.9 pp
Draw29%3.453.0030%-1.0 pp
Alverca B win29%3.452.9031%-2.0 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 71%
Total expected goals3.38Open
Dedicated goals model: Over 66% · Under 34%
Away share of expected goals 29%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 57% · No 43%Match profileOpen
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchUD da Serra
WLWLD
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5
Away-context · form sequence
2.40pts / matchAlverca B
WWLWW
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12
SignalAway unbeaten 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
41%
Win probability excluding draw
29%7
Points from supplied form
122.40
Expected goals
0.98UD da SerraAlverca B
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.
Match questions
UD da Serra vs Alverca B FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 41% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
UD da Serra win 41%，Draw 29%，Alverca B win 29%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 3.38 · Over 2.5 66% · Current selection Over。