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PRT Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Fixture ·

Fatima vs Malveira

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.93 expected goals
Away form
Home win33%
Draw30%
Away win36%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win36% selection probability
Projected score1–1FatimaMalveira
Expected goals1.93Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under69% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo64% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
33% / 30% / 36%Match resultAway win36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.3%)Double chance1269.7%1.43
Over 31% · Under 69%Goals 2.5Under69%1.45
Yes 36% · No 64%Both teams scoreNo64%1.56
1.93 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
8.7 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapMalveira winDifference-1.8 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Fatima win33%3.032.8032.2%+0.8 pp
Draw30%3.333.0030%0.0 pp
Malveira win36%2.782.3837.8%-1.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Fatima1.24

Home share of expected goals 64.2%

Total expected goals1.93Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 31% · Under 69%

Malveira0.69

Away share of expected goals 35.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 36% · No 64%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Fatima

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Malveira

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Win probability excluding draw
36%
8
Points from supplied form
2
1.24
Expected goals
0.69
FatimaMalveira
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Fatima signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Malveira signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Fatima vs Malveira FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Fatima win 33%,Draw 30%,Malveira win 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.93 · Over 2.5 31% · Current selection Under