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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Korona Kielce vs Legia Warsaw

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–11.99 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile33%
Nul29%
Victoire à l’extérieur38%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur38% selection probability
Projected score1–1Korona KielceLegia Warsaw
Expected goals1.99Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de68% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
33% / 29% / 38%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29%)Double chance1271%1.41
Plus de 32% · Moins de 68%Goals 2.5Moins de68%1.47
Oui 40% · Non 60%Les deux équipes marquentNon60%1.67
1.99 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
9.2 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.6%Largest probability gapLegia Warsaw winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Korona Kielce win33%3.032.8032.9%+0.1 pp
Nul29%3.453.2028.8%+0.2 pp
Legia Warsaw win38%2.632.4038.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Korona Kielce1.04

Domicile share of expected goals 52.3%

Total expected goals1.99Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 32% · Moins de 68%

Legia Warsaw0.95

Extérieur share of expected goals 47.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 40% · Non 60%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Korona Kielce

1.00pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Legia Warsaw

3.00pts / match
Joués5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Points15

SignalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Gagné probability excluding draw
38%
5
Points from supplied form
15
1.04
Expected goals
0.95
Korona KielceLegia Warsaw
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Korona Kielce signalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Legia Warsaw signalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Korona Kielce vs Legia Warsaw FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Korona Kielce victoire 33%,Nul 29%,Legia Warsaw victoire 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.99 · Plus de 2.5 32% · Current selection Moins de