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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Korona Kielce vs Legia Warsaw

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–11.99 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier33%
Uavgjort29%
Borteseier38%
Full model forecastBorteseierTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBorteseier38% selection probability
Projected score1–1Korona KielceLegia Warsaw
Expected goals1.99Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under68% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
33% / 29% / 38%KampresultatBorteseier38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29%)Dobbel sjanse1271%1.41
Over 32% · Under 68%Goals 2.5Under68%1.47
Ja 40% · Nei 60%Begge lag scorerNei60%1.67
1.99 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.2 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.6%Largest probability gapLegia Warsaw winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Korona Kielce win33%3.032.8032.9%+0.1 pp
Uavgjort29%3.453.2028.8%+0.2 pp
Legia Warsaw win38%2.632.4038.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Korona Kielce1.04

Hjemme share of expected goals 52.3%

Total expected goals1.99Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 32% · Under 68%

Legia Warsaw0.95

Borte share of expected goals 47.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 40% · Nei 60%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Korona Kielce

1.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poeng5

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Legia Warsaw

3.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Poeng15

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
38%
5
Points from supplied form
15
1.04
Expected goals
0.95
Korona KielceLegia Warsaw
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Korona Kielce signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Legia Warsaw signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Korona Kielce vs Legia Warsaw FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Borteseier · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Korona Kielce vunnet 33%,Uavgjort 29%,Legia Warsaw vunnet 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.99 · Over 2.5 32% · Current selection Under