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ESP Spanien - La Liga · Spiel ·

Alavés vs Villarreal

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–23.15 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg31%
Unentschieden27%
Auswärtssieg42%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg42% selection probability
Projected score1–2AlavésVillarreal
Expected goals3.15Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über61% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa63% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
31% / 27% / 42%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.9%)Doppelte Chance1273.1%1.37
Über 61% · Unter 39%Goals 2.5Über61%1.64
Ja 63% · Nein 37%Beide Teams treffenJa63%1.59
3.15 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–2
9.9 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.3%Largest probability gapAlavés winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Alavés win31%3.233.1030.6%+0.4 pp
Unentschieden27%3.703.5027.1%-0.1 pp
Villarreal win42%2.382.2542.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Alavés1.45

Heim share of expected goals 46%

Total expected goals3.15Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 61% · Unter 39%

Villarreal1.70

Auswärts share of expected goals 54%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 63% · Nein 37%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Alavés

2.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punkte11

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Villarreal

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
31%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
42%
11
Points from supplied form
8
1.45
Expected goals
1.70
AlavésVillarreal
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Alavés signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Villarreal signalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Alavés vs Villarreal FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–2 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Alavés Gewinn 31%,Unentschieden 27%,Villarreal Gewinn 42%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.15 · Über 2.5 61% · Current selection Über