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ESP España - La Liga · Partido ·

Alavés vs Villarreal

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–23.15 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local31%
Empate27%
Victoria visitante42%
Full model forecastVictoria visitanteTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria visitante42% selection probability
Projected score1–2AlavésVillarreal
Expected goals3.15Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Más de61% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan63% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
31% / 27% / 42%Resultado del partidoVictoria visitante42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.9%)Doble Oportunidad1273.1%1.37
Más de 61% · Menos de 39%Goals 2.5Más de61%1.64
Sí 63% · No 37%Ambos equipos marcan63%1.59
3.15 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–2
9.9 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.3%Largest probability gapAlavés winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Alavés win31%3.233.1030.6%+0.4 pp
Empate27%3.703.5027.1%-0.1 pp
Villarreal win42%2.382.2542.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Alavés1.45

Local share of expected goals 46%

Total expected goals3.15Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Más de 61% · Menos de 39%

Villarreal1.70

Visitante share of expected goals 54%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 63% · No 37%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Alavés

2.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puntos11

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Villarreal

1.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puntos8

SignalLocal clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
31%
Ganado probability excluding draw
42%
11
Points from supplied form
8
1.45
Expected goals
1.70
AlavésVillarreal
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Alavés signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Villarreal signalLocal clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Alavés vs Villarreal FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria visitante · Projected score 1–2 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Alavés ganada 31%,Empate 27%,Villarreal ganada 42%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.15 · Más de 2.5 61% · Current selection Más de