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ENG England - Southern Premier League - South · Spiel ·

Basingstoke vs Evesham United

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–23.62 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg46%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg28%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg46% selection probability
Projected score2–2BasingstokeEvesham United
Expected goals3.62Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über70% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa70% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
46% / 25% / 28%SpielergebnisHeimsieg46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.5%)Doppelte Chance1274.5%1.34
Über 70% · Unter 30%Goals 2.5Über70%1.43
Ja 70% · Nein 30%Beide Teams treffenJa70%1.43
3.62 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–2
8.8 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapBasingstoke winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Basingstoke win46%2.171.9147.1%-1.1 pp
Unentschieden25%4.003.5025.7%-0.7 pp
Evesham United win28%3.573.3027.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Basingstoke1.72

Heim share of expected goals 47.5%

Total expected goals3.62Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 70% · Unter 30%

Evesham United1.90

Auswärts share of expected goals 52.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 70% · Nein 30%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Basingstoke

0.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punkte3

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Evesham United

1.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punkte9

SignalHeim failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
28%
3
Points from supplied form
9
1.72
Expected goals
1.90
BasingstokeEvesham United
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Basingstoke signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Evesham United signalHeim failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Basingstoke vs Evesham United FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–2 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Basingstoke Gewinn 46%,Unentschieden 25%,Evesham United Gewinn 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.62 · Über 2.5 70% · Current selection Über