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BRA Brazil Serie C · Spiel ·

Figueirense vs Ferroviária

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–11.49 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg41%
Unentschieden31%
Auswärtssieg29%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg41% selection probability
Projected score1–1FigueirenseFerroviária
Expected goals1.49Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter81% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein72% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
41% / 31% / 29%SpielergebnisHeimsieg41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ferroviária win (28.7%)Doppelte Chance1X71.3%1.40
Über 19% · Unter 81%Goals 2.5Unter81%1.23
Ja 28% · Nein 72%Beide Teams treffenNein72%1.39
1.49 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
10.9 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+1.0 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Figueirense win41%2.442.1541.9%-0.9 pp
Unentschieden31%3.233.0030%+1.0 pp
Ferroviária win29%3.453.2028.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Figueirense0.69

Heim share of expected goals 46.3%

Total expected goals1.49Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 19% · Unter 81%

Ferroviária0.80

Auswärts share of expected goals 53.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 28% · Nein 72%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Figueirense

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punkte6

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Ferroviária

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
29%
6
Points from supplied form
7
0.69
Expected goals
0.80
FigueirenseFerroviária
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Figueirense signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ferroviária signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Figueirense vs Ferroviária FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Figueirense Gewinn 41%,Unentschieden 31%,Ferroviária Gewinn 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.49 · Über 2.5 19% · Current selection Unter