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Charlton vs Derby

Archived pre-match prediction

Heim form
Projected score1–12.29 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg30%
Unentschieden30%
Auswärtssieg40%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg40% selection probability
Projected score1–1CharltonDerby
Expected goals2.29Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter60% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
30% / 30% / 40%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Charlton win (29.7%)Doppelte ChanceX270.3%1.42
Über 40% · Unter 60%Goals 2.5Unter60%1.67
Ja 46% · Nein 54%Beide Teams treffenNein54%1.85
2.29 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
9.6 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Charlton win30%3.33
Unentschieden30%3.33
Derby win40%2.50

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Charlton0.99

Heim share of expected goals 43.2%

Total expected goals2.29Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 40% · Unter 60%

Derby1.30

Auswärts share of expected goals 56.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nein 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Charlton

1.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkte5

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Derby

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalAuswärts matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
30%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
40%
5
Points from supplied form
6
0.99
Expected goals
1.30
CharltonDerby
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Charlton signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Derby signalAuswärts matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Charlton vs Derby FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Charlton Gewinn 30%,Unentschieden 30%,Derby Gewinn 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.29 · Über 2.5 40% · Current selection Unter