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Charlton vs Derby

Archived pre-match prediction

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.29 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr30%
Uafgjort30%
Udesejr40%
Full model forecastUdesejrTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr40% selection probability
Projected score1–1CharltonDerby
Expected goals2.29Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under60% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
30% / 30% / 40%KampresultatUdesejr40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Charlton win (29.7%)DobbeltchanceX270.3%1.42
Over 40% · Under 60%Goals 2.5Under60%1.67
Ja 46% · Nej 54%Begge hold scorerNej54%1.85
2.29 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.6 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Charlton win30%3.33
Uafgjort30%3.33
Derby win40%2.50

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Charlton0.99

Hjemme share of expected goals 43.2%

Total expected goals2.29Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 40% · Under 60%

Derby1.30

Ude share of expected goals 56.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nej 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Charlton

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Derby

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalUde matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
30%
Vundet probability excluding draw
40%
5
Points from supplied form
6
0.99
Expected goals
1.30
CharltonDerby
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Charlton signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Derby signalUde matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Charlton vs Derby FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Charlton vundet 30%,Uafgjort 30%,Derby vundet 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.29 · Over 2.5 40% · Current selection Under