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BRA Brasilien - Paulista Serie B · Spiel ·

America SP U23 vs Independente SP U23

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–11.66 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg34%
Unentschieden29%
Auswärtssieg37%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg37% selection probability
Projected score1–1America SP U23Independente SP U23
Expected goals1.66Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter77% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein68% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
34% / 29% / 37%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Doppelte Chance1270.5%1.42
Über 23% · Unter 77%Goals 2.5Unter77%1.30
Ja 32% · Nein 68%Beide Teams treffenNein68%1.47
1.66 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
8.5 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapAmerica SP U23 winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
America SP U23 win34%2.942.7033.3%+0.7 pp
Unentschieden29%3.453.1029%0.0 pp
Independente SP U23 win37%2.702.3837.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

America SP U230.93

Heim share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals1.66Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 23% · Unter 77%

Independente SP U230.73

Auswärts share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 32% · Nein 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

America SP U23

2.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punkte11

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Independente SP U23

3.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punkte15

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
37%
11
Points from supplied form
15
0.93
Expected goals
0.73
America SP U23Independente SP U23
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01America SP U23 signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Independente SP U23 signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

America SP U23 vs Independente SP U23 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

America SP U23 Gewinn 34%,Unentschieden 29%,Independente SP U23 Gewinn 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.66 · Über 2.5 23% · Current selection Unter