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BRA Brasil - Campeonato Paulista - Serie B · Partido ·

América SP sub-23 vs Independente SP sub-23

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–11.66 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local34%
Empate29%
Victoria visitante37%
Full model forecastVictoria visitanteTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria visitante37% selection probability
Projected score1–1América SP sub-23Independente SP sub-23
Expected goals1.66Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de77% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo68% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
34% / 29% / 37%Resultado del partidoVictoria visitante37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Doble Oportunidad1270.5%1.42
Más de 23% · Menos de 77%Goals 2.5Menos de77%1.30
Sí 32% · No 68%Ambos equipos marcanNo68%1.47
1.66 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
8.5 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapAmérica SP sub-23 winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
América SP sub-23 win34%2.942.7033.3%+0.7 pp
Empate29%3.453.1029%0.0 pp
Independente SP sub-23 win37%2.702.3837.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

América SP sub-230.93

Local share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals1.66Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 23% · Menos de 77%

Independente SP sub-230.73

Visitante share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 32% · No 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

América SP sub-23

2.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puntos11

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Independente SP sub-23

3.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Puntos15

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Ganado probability excluding draw
37%
11
Points from supplied form
15
0.93
Expected goals
0.73
América SP sub-23Independente SP sub-23
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01América SP sub-23 signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Independente SP sub-23 signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

América SP sub-23 vs Independente SP sub-23 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria visitante · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

América SP sub-23 ganada 34%,Empate 29%,Independente SP sub-23 ganada 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.66 · Más de 2.5 23% · Current selection Menos de