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BRA Brasile - Campeonato Paulista - 2ª divisione · Partita ·

America SP U23 vs Independente SP U23

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–11.66 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa34%
Pareggio29%
Vittoria ospite37%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite37% selection probability
Projected score1–1America SP U23Independente SP U23
Expected goals1.66Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto77% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo68% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
34% / 29% / 37%Esito partitaVittoria ospite37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Doppia Chance1270.5%1.42
Sopra 23% · Sotto 77%Goals 2.5Sotto77%1.30
Sì 32% · No 68%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo68%1.47
1.66 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
8.5 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapAmerica SP U23 winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
America SP U23 win34%2.942.7033.3%+0.7 pp
Pareggio29%3.453.1029%0.0 pp
Independente SP U23 win37%2.702.3837.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

America SP U230.93

Casa share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals1.66Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 23% · Sotto 77%

Independente SP U230.73

Trasferta share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 32% · No 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

America SP U23

2.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punti11

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Independente SP U23

3.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punti15

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Vinta probability excluding draw
37%
11
Points from supplied form
15
0.93
Expected goals
0.73
America SP U23Independente SP U23
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01America SP U23 signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Independente SP U23 signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

America SP U23 vs Independente SP U23 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

America SP U23 vinta 34%,Pareggio 29%,Independente SP U23 vinta 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.66 · Sopra 2.5 23% · Current selection Sotto