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EUR Europe Friendlies · Spiel ·

Alcorcon vs Navalcarnero

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–13.28 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg45%
Unentschieden23%
Auswärtssieg32%
Baseline forecastHeimsiegTier C · 45% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg45% selection probability
Projected score2–1AlcorconNavalcarnero
Expected goals3.28Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über64% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa64% for the selected side
Expected corners8.1Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
45% / 23% / 32%SpielergebnisHeimsieg45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (22.8%)Doppelte Chance1277.2%1.30
Über 64% · Unter 36%Goals 2.5Über64%1.56
Ja 64% · Nein 36%Beide Teams treffenJa64%1.56
3.28 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
8.1 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Alcorcon win45%2.22
Unentschieden23%4.35
Navalcarnero win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Alcorcon1.80

Heim share of expected goals 54.9%

Total expected goals3.28Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 64% · Unter 36%

Navalcarnero1.48

Auswärts share of expected goals 45.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 64% · Nein 36%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Alcorcon

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Navalcarnero

2.25pts / match
Gespielt4Wins3Drawn0Losses1Punkte9

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
32%
8
Points from supplied form
9
1.80
Expected goals
1.48
AlcorconNavalcarnero
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Alcorcon signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Navalcarnero signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Alcorcon vs Navalcarnero FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Alcorcon Gewinn 45%,Unentschieden 23%,Navalcarnero Gewinn 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.28 · Über 2.5 64% · Current selection Über