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EUR Europe Friendlies · Match ·

Alcorcon vs Navalcarnero

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–13.28 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile45%
Nul23%
Victoire à l’extérieur32%
Baseline forecastVictoire à domicileTier C · 45% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile45% selection probability
Projected score2–1AlcorconNavalcarnero
Expected goals3.28Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de64% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui64% for the selected side
Expected corners8.1Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
45% / 23% / 32%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (22.8%)Double chance1277.2%1.30
Plus de 64% · Moins de 36%Goals 2.5Plus de64%1.56
Oui 64% · Non 36%Les deux équipes marquentOui64%1.56
3.28 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
8.1 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Alcorcon win45%2.22
Nul23%4.35
Navalcarnero win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Alcorcon1.80

Domicile share of expected goals 54.9%

Total expected goals3.28Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 64% · Moins de 36%

Navalcarnero1.48

Extérieur share of expected goals 45.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 64% · Non 36%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Alcorcon

1.60pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Navalcarnero

2.25pts / match
Joués4Wins3Drawn0Losses1Points9

SignalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Gagné probability excluding draw
32%
8
Points from supplied form
9
1.80
Expected goals
1.48
AlcorconNavalcarnero
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Alcorcon signalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Navalcarnero signalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Alcorcon vs Navalcarnero FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Alcorcon victoire 45%,Nul 23%,Navalcarnero victoire 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.28 · Plus de 2.5 64% · Current selection Plus de