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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Kamp ·

Casa Pia vs Moreirense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.19 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr40%
Uafgjort31%
Udesejr29%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr40% selection probability
Projected score1–1Casa PiaMoreirense
Expected goals2.19Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under63% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
40% / 31% / 29%KampresultatHjemmesejr40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Moreirense win (29.2%)Dobbeltchance1X70.8%1.41
Over 37% · Under 63%Goals 2.5Under63%1.59
Ja 44% · Nej 56%Begge hold scorerNej56%1.79
2.19 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.2 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.5%Largest probability gapCasa Pia winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Casa Pia win40%2.502.2540.9%-0.9 pp
Uafgjort31%3.233.0030.7%+0.3 pp
Moreirense win29%3.453.2528.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Casa Pia0.99

Hjemme share of expected goals 45.2%

Total expected goals2.19Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 37% · Under 63%

Moreirense1.20

Ude share of expected goals 54.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 44% · Nej 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Casa Pia

0.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Point0

SignalHjemme failed to score: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Moreirense

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalUde clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Vundet probability excluding draw
29%
0
Points from supplied form
5
0.99
Expected goals
1.20
Casa PiaMoreirense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Casa Pia signalHjemme failed to score: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Moreirense signalUde clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Casa Pia vs Moreirense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Casa Pia vundet 40%,Uafgjort 31%,Moreirense vundet 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.19 · Over 2.5 37% · Current selection Under