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URY Uruguay - Clausura · Kamp ·

Danubio vs Cerro

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–11.78 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr41%
Uafgjort33%
Udesejr26%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr41% selection probability
Projected score1–1DanubioCerro
Expected goals1.78Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under74% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej66% for the selected side
Expected corners8.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
41% / 33% / 26%KampresultatHjemmesejr41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cerro win (26%)Dobbeltchance1X74%1.35
Over 26% · Under 74%Goals 2.5Under74%1.35
Ja 34% · Nej 66%Begge hold scorerNej66%1.52
1.78 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.6 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Danubio win41%2.44
Uafgjort33%3.03
Cerro win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Danubio1.09

Hjemme share of expected goals 61.2%

Total expected goals1.78Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 26% · Under 74%

Cerro0.69

Ude share of expected goals 38.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 34% · Nej 66%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Danubio

1.60pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Point8

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Cerro

2.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Point11

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Vundet probability excluding draw
26%
8
Points from supplied form
11
1.09
Expected goals
0.69
DanubioCerro
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Danubio signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Cerro signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Danubio vs Cerro FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Danubio vundet 41%,Uafgjort 33%,Cerro vundet 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.78 · Over 2.5 26% · Current selection Under