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ENG England Premier League · Round 1 ·

Brighton vs Aston Villa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Chủ nhà form
Projected score1–12.60 expected goals
Khách form
Chủ nhà thắng43%
Hòa26%
Đội khách thắng31%
Full model forecastChủ nhà thắngTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callChủ nhà thắng43% selection probability
Projected score1–1BrightonAston Villa
Expected goals2.60Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Xỉu52% for the selected side
Cả hai đội ghi bàn53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Tài 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketLựa chọnXác suấtTỷ lệ công bằng
43% / 26% / 31%Kết quả trận đấuChủ nhà thắng43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.4%)Cơ hội kép1273.6%1.36
Tài 48% · Xỉu 52%Goals 2.5Xỉu52%1.92
Có 53% · Không 47%Cả hai đội ghi bàn53%1.89
2.60 total expected goalsTỷ số chính xác1–1
10.0 expected match cornersPhạt gócTài 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapAston Villa winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomeDự đoánTỷ lệ công bằngReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Brighton win43%2.332.2043.1%-0.1 pp
Hòa26%3.853.6026.3%-0.3 pp
Aston Villa win31%3.233.1030.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Brighton1.44

Chủ nhà share of expected goals 55.4%

Total expected goals2.60Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Tài 48% · Xỉu 52%

Aston Villa1.16

Khách share of expected goals 44.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 53% · Không 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Chủ nhà-context · form sequence

Brighton

1.20pts / match
Số trận5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Điểm6

SignalChủ nhà matches over 2.5: 4/5

Khách-context · form sequence

Aston Villa

1.40pts / match
Số trận5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Điểm7

SignalChủ nhà clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Thắng probability excluding draw
31%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.44
Expected goals
1.16
BrightonAston Villa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Brighton signalChủ nhà matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aston Villa signalChủ nhà clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Hòa probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Brighton vs Aston Villa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Chủ nhà thắng · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Brighton thắng 43%,Hòa 26%,Aston Villa thắng 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.60 · Tài 2.5 48% · Current selection Xỉu