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ENG Anglie - Premier League · Round 1 ·

Brighton vs Aston Villa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domácí form
Projected score1–12.60 expected goals
Hosté form
Výhra domácích43%
Remíza26%
Výhra hostů31%
Full model forecastVýhra domácíchTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra domácích43% selection probability
Projected score1–1BrightonAston Villa
Expected goals2.60Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Méně52% for the selected side
Oba týmy skórujíAno53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Více 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýběrPravděpodobnostFérový kurz
43% / 26% / 31%Výsledek zápasuVýhra domácích43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.4%)Dvojitá šance1273.6%1.36
Více 48% · Méně 52%Goals 2.5Méně52%1.92
Ano 53% · Ne 47%Oba týmy skórujíAno53%1.89
2.60 total expected goalsPřesné skóre1–1
10.0 expected match cornersRohyVíce 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapAston Villa winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePředpověďFérový kurzReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Brighton win43%2.332.2043.1%-0.1 pp
Remíza26%3.853.6026.3%-0.3 pp
Aston Villa win31%3.233.1030.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Brighton1.44

Domácí share of expected goals 55.4%

Total expected goals2.60Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Více 48% · Méně 52%

Aston Villa1.16

Hosté share of expected goals 44.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitAno 53% · Ne 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domácí-context · form sequence

Brighton

1.20pts / match
Odehráno5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Body6

SignalDomácí matches over 2.5: 4/5

Hosté-context · form sequence

Aston Villa

1.40pts / match
Odehráno5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Body7

SignalDomácí clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Výhra probability excluding draw
31%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.44
Expected goals
1.16
BrightonAston Villa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Brighton signalDomácí matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aston Villa signalDomácí clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Brighton vs Aston Villa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra domácích · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Brighton výhra 43%,Remíza 26%,Aston Villa výhra 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.60 · Více 2.5 48% · Current selection Méně