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ENG Anglia - Premier League · Round 1 ·

Brighton vs Aston Villa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–12.60 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde43%
Egal26%
Victorie oaspeți31%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde43% selection probability
Projected score1–1BrightonAston Villa
Expected goals2.60Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub52% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
43% / 26% / 31%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.4%)Șansă dublă1273.6%1.36
Peste 48% · Sub 52%Goals 2.5Sub52%1.92
Da 53% · Nu 47%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa53%1.89
2.60 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
10.0 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapAston Villa winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Brighton win43%2.332.2043.1%-0.1 pp
Egal26%3.853.6026.3%-0.3 pp
Aston Villa win31%3.233.1030.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Brighton1.44

Gazde share of expected goals 55.4%

Total expected goals2.60Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 48% · Sub 52%

Aston Villa1.16

Oaspeți share of expected goals 44.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 53% · Nu 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Brighton

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Puncte6

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Aston Villa

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalGazde clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Câștig probability excluding draw
31%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.44
Expected goals
1.16
BrightonAston Villa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Brighton signalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aston Villa signalGazde clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Brighton vs Aston Villa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Brighton câștig 43%,Egal 26%,Aston Villa câștig 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.60 · Peste 2.5 48% · Current selection Sub