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IRL Republic of Ireland Premier Division · Match ·

Derry City vs Sligo Rovers

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.44 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger51%
Oavgjort28%
Bortaseger21%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger51% selection probability
Projected score2–1Derry CitySligo Rovers
Expected goals2.44Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under56% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej56% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
51% / 28% / 21%MatchresultatHemmaseger51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sligo Rovers win (21.2%)Dubbelchans1X78.8%1.27
Över 44% · Under 56%Goals 2.5Under56%1.79
Ja 44% · Nej 56%Båda lagen gör målNej56%1.79
2.44 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.6 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Derry City win51%1.96
Oavgjort28%3.57
Sligo Rovers win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Derry City1.68

Hemma share of expected goals 68.9%

Total expected goals2.44Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 44% · Under 56%

Sligo Rovers0.76

Borta share of expected goals 31.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 44% · Nej 56%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Derry City

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalBorta matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Sligo Rovers

0.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poäng2

SignalNej recent signal

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
21%
5
Points from supplied form
2
1.68
Expected goals
0.76
Derry CitySligo Rovers
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Derry City signalBorta matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sligo Rovers signalNej recent signal

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Derry City vs Sligo Rovers FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Derry City vunnen 51%,Oavgjort 28%,Sligo Rovers vunnen 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.44 · Över 2.5 44% · Current selection Under