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JPN Япония - Джей-лига - Кубок · Round 1 ·

Кагосима Юнайтед vs Thespa Gunma

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–13.65 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев52%
Ничья25%
Победа гостей24%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Кагосима ЮнайтедThespa Gunma
Expected goals3.65Открытие match profile
Goals 2.5Больше71% for the selected side
Обе забьютДа68% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Больше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
52% / 25% / 24%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Thespa Gunma win (23.6%)Двойной шанс1X76.4%1.31
Больше 71% · Меньше 29%Goals 2.5Больше71%1.41
Да 68% · Нет 32%Обе забьютДа68%1.47
3.65 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
10.2 expected match cornersУгловыеБольше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapКагосима Юнайтед winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Кагосима Юнайтед win52%1.921.7551.4%+0.6 pp
Ничья25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Thespa Gunma win24%4.173.8023.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Кагосима Юнайтед2.25

Хозяева share of expected goals 61.6%

Total expected goals3.65Открытие

Dedicated goals model: Больше 71% · Меньше 29%

Thespa Gunma1.40

Гости share of expected goals 38.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 68% · Нет 32%Match profileОткрытие
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Кагосима Юнайтед

0.40pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Баллы2

SignalХозяева matches under 2.5: 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Thespa Gunma

3.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Баллы15

SignalХозяева failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
24%
2
Points from supplied form
15
2.25
Expected goals
1.40
Кагосима ЮнайтедThespa Gunma
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Кагосима Юнайтед signalХозяева matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Thespa Gunma signalХозяева failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Кагосима Юнайтед vs Thespa Gunma FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Кагосима Юнайтед выигрыш 52%,Ничья 25%,Thespa Gunma выигрыш 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.65 · ТБ 2.5 71% · Current selection Больше