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JPN Japon - J3-League · Round 1 ·

Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–13.65 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile52%
Nul25%
Victoire à l’extérieur24%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Kagoshima UnitedThespa Gunma
Expected goals3.65Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de71% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui68% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
52% / 25% / 24%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Thespa Gunma win (23.6%)Double chance1X76.4%1.31
Plus de 71% · Moins de 29%Goals 2.5Plus de71%1.41
Oui 68% · Non 32%Les deux équipes marquentOui68%1.47
3.65 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
10.2 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapKagoshima United winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Kagoshima United win52%1.921.7551.4%+0.6 pp
Nul25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Thespa Gunma win24%4.173.8023.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Kagoshima United2.25

Domicile share of expected goals 61.6%

Total expected goals3.65Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 71% · Moins de 29%

Thespa Gunma1.40

Extérieur share of expected goals 38.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 68% · Non 32%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Kagoshima United

0.40pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Thespa Gunma

3.00pts / match
Joués5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Points15

SignalDomicile failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Gagné probability excluding draw
24%
2
Points from supplied form
15
2.25
Expected goals
1.40
Kagoshima UnitedThespa Gunma
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Kagoshima United signalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Thespa Gunma signalDomicile failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Kagoshima United vs Thespa Gunma FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Kagoshima United victoire 52%,Nul 25%,Thespa Gunma victoire 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.65 · Plus de 2.5 71% · Current selection Plus de