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MNE Montenegro Prva Liga · Матч ·

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–12.30 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев60%
Ничья25%
Победа гостей15%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 60% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев60% selection probability
Projected score2–1FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Expected goals2.30Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше60% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет67% for the selected side
Expected corners7.7Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
60% / 25% / 15%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев60%1.67
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Arsenal Tivat win (15%)Двойной шанс1X85%1.18
Больше 40% · Меньше 60%Goals 2.5Меньше60%1.67
Да 33% · Нет 67%Обе забьютНет67%1.49
2.30 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
7.7 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapFK Mornar Bar winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Mornar Bar win60%1.671.5358.7%+1.3 pp
Ничья25%4.003.5025.7%-0.7 pp
Arsenal Tivat win15%6.675.7515.6%-0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Mornar Bar1.80

Хозяева share of expected goals 78.3%

Total expected goals2.30Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 40% · Меньше 60%

Arsenal Tivat0.50

Гости share of expected goals 21.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 33% · Нет 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

FK Mornar Bar

2.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Баллы11

SignalХозяева unbeaten 5/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Arsenal Tivat

0.80pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Баллы4

SignalХозяева matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
60%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
15%
11
Points from supplied form
4
1.80
Expected goals
0.50
FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Mornar Bar signalХозяева unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arsenal Tivat signalХозяева matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk40% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 60% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Mornar Bar выигрыш 60%,Ничья 25%,Arsenal Tivat выигрыш 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.30 · ТБ 2.5 40% · Current selection Меньше