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MNE Montenegro Prva Liga · Partita ·

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.30 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa60%
Pareggio25%
Vittoria ospite15%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 60% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa60% selection probability
Projected score2–1FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Expected goals2.30Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto60% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo67% for the selected side
Expected corners7.7Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
60% / 25% / 15%Esito partitaVittoria casa60%1.67
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Arsenal Tivat win (15%)Doppia Chance1X85%1.18
Sopra 40% · Sotto 60%Goals 2.5Sotto60%1.67
Sì 33% · No 67%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo67%1.49
2.30 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
7.7 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapFK Mornar Bar winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Mornar Bar win60%1.671.5358.7%+1.3 pp
Pareggio25%4.003.5025.7%-0.7 pp
Arsenal Tivat win15%6.675.7515.6%-0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Mornar Bar1.80

Casa share of expected goals 78.3%

Total expected goals2.30Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 40% · Sotto 60%

Arsenal Tivat0.50

Trasferta share of expected goals 21.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 33% · No 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

FK Mornar Bar

2.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punti11

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Arsenal Tivat

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
60%
Vinta probability excluding draw
15%
11
Points from supplied form
4
1.80
Expected goals
0.50
FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Mornar Bar signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arsenal Tivat signalCasa matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk40% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 60% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Mornar Bar vinta 60%,Pareggio 25%,Arsenal Tivat vinta 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.30 · Sopra 2.5 40% · Current selection Sotto