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MNE Montenegro Prva Liga · Kamp ·

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.30 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr60%
Uafgjort25%
Udesejr15%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 60% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr60% selection probability
Projected score2–1FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Expected goals2.30Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under60% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej67% for the selected side
Expected corners7.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
60% / 25% / 15%KampresultatHjemmesejr60%1.67
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Arsenal Tivat win (15%)Dobbeltchance1X85%1.18
Over 40% · Under 60%Goals 2.5Under60%1.67
Ja 33% · Nej 67%Begge hold scorerNej67%1.49
2.30 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
7.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapFK Mornar Bar winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Mornar Bar win60%1.671.5358.7%+1.3 pp
Uafgjort25%4.003.5025.7%-0.7 pp
Arsenal Tivat win15%6.675.7515.6%-0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Mornar Bar1.80

Hjemme share of expected goals 78.3%

Total expected goals2.30Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 40% · Under 60%

Arsenal Tivat0.50

Ude share of expected goals 21.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 33% · Nej 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

FK Mornar Bar

2.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Point11

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Arsenal Tivat

0.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Point4

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
60%
Vundet probability excluding draw
15%
11
Points from supplied form
4
1.80
Expected goals
0.50
FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Mornar Bar signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arsenal Tivat signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk40% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 60% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Mornar Bar vundet 60%,Uafgjort 25%,Arsenal Tivat vundet 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.30 · Over 2.5 40% · Current selection Under