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BRA Brazil Serie B · Матч ·

Америка МГ vs Понте-Прета

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–12.46 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев71%
Ничья20%
Победа гостей10%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 71% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев71% selection probability
Projected score2–1Америка МГПонте-Прета
Expected goals2.46Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше56% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Больше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
71% / 20% / 10%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев71%1.41
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Понте-Прета win (9.6%)Двойной шанс1X90.4%1.11
Больше 44% · Меньше 56%Goals 2.5Меньше56%1.79
Да 43% · Нет 57%Обе забьютНет57%1.75
2.46 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
10.4 expected match cornersУгловыеБольше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.6%Largest probability gapПонте-Прета winDifference+0.8 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Америка МГ win71%1.411.2971.4%-0.4 pp
Ничья20%5.004.7519.4%+0.6 pp
Понте-Прета win10%10.0010.009.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Америка МГ1.72

Хозяева share of expected goals 69.9%

Total expected goals2.46Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 44% · Меньше 56%

Понте-Прета0.74

Гости share of expected goals 30.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 43% · Нет 57%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Америка МГ

0.60pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Баллы3

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Понте-Прета

0.40pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Баллы2

SignalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
71%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
10%
3
Points from supplied form
2
1.72
Expected goals
0.74
Америка МГПонте-Прета
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Америка МГ signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Понте-Прета signalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk29% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Америка МГ vs Понте-Прета FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 71% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Америка МГ выигрыш 71%,Ничья 20%,Понте-Прета выигрыш 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.46 · ТБ 2.5 44% · Current selection Меньше