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BRA Brasilien - Serie B · Match ·

America MG vs Ponte Preta

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.46 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger71%
Oavgjort20%
Bortaseger10%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 71% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger71% selection probability
Projected score2–1America MGPonte Preta
Expected goals2.46Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under56% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
71% / 20% / 10%MatchresultatHemmaseger71%1.41
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ponte Preta win (9.6%)Dubbelchans1X90.4%1.11
Över 44% · Under 56%Goals 2.5Under56%1.79
Ja 43% · Nej 57%Båda lagen gör målNej57%1.75
2.46 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.4 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.6%Largest probability gapPonte Preta winDifference+0.8 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
America MG win71%1.411.2971.4%-0.4 pp
Oavgjort20%5.004.7519.4%+0.6 pp
Ponte Preta win10%10.0010.009.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

America MG1.72

Hemma share of expected goals 69.9%

Total expected goals2.46Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 44% · Under 56%

Ponte Preta0.74

Borta share of expected goals 30.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 43% · Nej 57%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

America MG

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Ponte Preta

0.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poäng2

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
71%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
10%
3
Points from supplied form
2
1.72
Expected goals
0.74
America MGPonte Preta
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01America MG signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ponte Preta signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk29% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

America MG vs Ponte Preta FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 71% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

America MG vunnen 71%,Oavgjort 20%,Ponte Preta vunnen 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.46 · Över 2.5 44% · Current selection Under