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POL Polonia - I Liga · Meci ·

Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Mielec

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–12.52 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde32%
Egal27%
Victorie oaspeți41%
Full model forecastVictorie oaspețiTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie oaspeți41% selection probability
Projected score1–1Pogon SiedlceStal Mielec
Expected goals2.52Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub54% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa51% for the selected side
Expected corners11.1Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
32% / 27% / 41%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie oaspeți41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27%)Șansă dublă1273%1.37
Peste 46% · Sub 54%Goals 2.5Sub54%1.85
Da 51% · Nu 49%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa51%1.96
2.52 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
11.1 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.5%Largest probability gapPogon Siedlce winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Pogon Siedlce win32%3.132.8031.7%+0.3 pp
Egal27%3.703.3026.9%+0.1 pp
Stal Mielec win41%2.442.1541.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Pogon Siedlce1.13

Gazde share of expected goals 44.8%

Total expected goals2.52Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 46% · Sub 54%

Stal Mielec1.39

Oaspeți share of expected goals 55.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 51% · Nu 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Pogon Siedlce

1.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puncte5

SignalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Stal Mielec

1.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puncte8

SignalOaspeți matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Câștig probability excluding draw
41%
5
Points from supplied form
8
1.13
Expected goals
1.39
Pogon SiedlceStal Mielec
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Pogon Siedlce signalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Stal Mielec signalOaspeți matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Mielec FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie oaspeți · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Pogon Siedlce câștig 32%,Egal 27%,Stal Mielec câștig 41%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.52 · Peste 2.5 46% · Current selection Sub