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USA USA USL Championship · Partida ·

Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score2–12.77 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa51%
Empate26%
Vitória visitante23%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa51% selection probability
Projected score2–1Lexington SCPhoenix Rising FC
Expected goals2.77Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Acima52% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamSim56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
51% / 26% / 23%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Phoenix Rising FC win (23.5%)Dupla Chance1X76.5%1.31
Acima 52% · Abaixo 48%Goals 2.5Acima52%1.92
Sim 56% · Não 44%Ambas as equipes marcamSim56%1.79
2.77 total expected goalsPlacar exato2–1
9.0 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.3%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lexington SC win51%1.961.8051.3%-0.3 pp
Empate26%3.853.6025.6%+0.4 pp
Phoenix Rising FC win23%4.354.0023.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lexington SC1.57

Mandante share of expected goals 56.7%

Total expected goals2.77Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Acima 52% · Abaixo 48%

Phoenix Rising FC1.20

Visitante share of expected goals 43.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitSim 56% · Não 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Lexington SC

2.00pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Pontos10

SignalMandante unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Phoenix Rising FC

1.00pts / match
Jogos5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Pontos5

SignalMandante matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
23%
10
Points from supplied form
5
1.57
Expected goals
1.20
Lexington SCPhoenix Rising FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lexington SC signalMandante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Phoenix Rising FC signalMandante matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lexington SC ganhou 51%,Empate 26%,Phoenix Rising FC ganhou 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.77 · Acima 2.5 52% · Current selection Acima