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USA USA USL Championship · Kamp ·

Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.77 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier51%
Uavgjort26%
Borteseier23%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier51% selection probability
Projected score2–1Lexington SCPhoenix Rising FC
Expected goals2.77Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over52% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
51% / 26% / 23%KampresultatHjemmeseier51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Phoenix Rising FC win (23.5%)Dobbel sjanse1X76.5%1.31
Over 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Over52%1.92
Ja 56% · Nei 44%Begge lag scorerJa56%1.79
2.77 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.3%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lexington SC win51%1.961.8051.3%-0.3 pp
Uavgjort26%3.853.6025.6%+0.4 pp
Phoenix Rising FC win23%4.354.0023.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lexington SC1.57

Hjemme share of expected goals 56.7%

Total expected goals2.77Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 52% · Under 48%

Phoenix Rising FC1.20

Borte share of expected goals 43.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 56% · Nei 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Lexington SC

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Phoenix Rising FC

1.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poeng5

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
23%
10
Points from supplied form
5
1.57
Expected goals
1.20
Lexington SCPhoenix Rising FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lexington SC signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Phoenix Rising FC signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lexington SC vunnet 51%,Uavgjort 26%,Phoenix Rising FC vunnet 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.77 · Over 2.5 52% · Current selection Over