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USA USA USL Championship · Match ·

Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.77 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile51%
Nul26%
Victoire à l’extérieur23%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile51% selection probability
Projected score2–1Lexington SCPhoenix Rising FC
Expected goals2.77Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de52% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
51% / 26% / 23%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Phoenix Rising FC win (23.5%)Double chance1X76.5%1.31
Plus de 52% · Moins de 48%Goals 2.5Plus de52%1.92
Oui 56% · Non 44%Les deux équipes marquentOui56%1.79
2.77 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.0 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.3%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lexington SC win51%1.961.8051.3%-0.3 pp
Nul26%3.853.6025.6%+0.4 pp
Phoenix Rising FC win23%4.354.0023.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lexington SC1.57

Domicile share of expected goals 56.7%

Total expected goals2.77Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 52% · Moins de 48%

Phoenix Rising FC1.20

Extérieur share of expected goals 43.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 56% · Non 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Lexington SC

2.00pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Phoenix Rising FC

1.00pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Gagné probability excluding draw
23%
10
Points from supplied form
5
1.57
Expected goals
1.20
Lexington SCPhoenix Rising FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lexington SC signalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Phoenix Rising FC signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lexington SC victoire 51%,Nul 26%,Phoenix Rising FC victoire 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.77 · Plus de 2.5 52% · Current selection Plus de