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HamKam vs Aalesund

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score3–13.89 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst55%
Gelijkspel23%
Uitwinst22%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst55% selection probability
Projected score3–1HamKamAalesund
Expected goals3.89Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven75% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa67% for the selected side
Expected corners11.1Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
55% / 23% / 22%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Aalesund win (21.9%)Dubbele Kans1X78.1%1.28
Boven 75% · Onder 25%Goals 2.5Boven75%1.33
Ja 67% · Nee 33%Beide teams scorenJa67%1.49
3.89 total expected goalsExacte score3–1
11.1 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
HamKam win55%1.82
Gelijkspel23%4.35
Aalesund win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

HamKam2.61

Thuis share of expected goals 67.1%

Total expected goals3.89Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 75% · Onder 25%

Aalesund1.28

Uit share of expected goals 32.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 67% · Nee 33%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

HamKam

0.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punten4

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Aalesund

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalThuis failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
22%
4
Points from supplied form
5
2.61
Expected goals
1.28
HamKamAalesund
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01HamKam signalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aalesund signalThuis failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

HamKam vs Aalesund FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 3–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

HamKam gewonnen 55%,Gelijkspel 23%,Aalesund gewonnen 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.89 · Boven 2.5 75% · Current selection Boven