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ENG Engeland - Premier League · Round 1 ·

Man City vs Bournemouth

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.20 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst56%
Gelijkspel24%
Uitwinst20%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 56% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst56% selection probability
Projected score2–1Man CityBournemouth
Expected goals3.20Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven62% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.8Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
56% / 24% / 20%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Bournemouth win (19.6%)Dubbele Kans1X80.4%1.24
Boven 62% · Onder 38%Goals 2.5Boven62%1.61
Ja 55% · Nee 45%Beide teams scorenJa55%1.82
3.20 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
10.8 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Man City win56%1.79
Gelijkspel24%4.17
Bournemouth win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Man City2.25

Thuis share of expected goals 70.3%

Total expected goals3.20Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 62% · Onder 38%

Bournemouth0.95

Uit share of expected goals 29.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nee 45%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Man City

1.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punten8

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Bournemouth

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Punten9

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
56%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
20%
8
Points from supplied form
9
2.25
Expected goals
0.95
Man CityBournemouth
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Man City signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Bournemouth signalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Man City vs Bournemouth FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Man City gewonnen 56%,Gelijkspel 24%,Bournemouth gewonnen 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.20 · Boven 2.5 62% · Current selection Boven