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EUR Europe Friendlies · Wedstrijd ·

Celta Fortuna vs UD Ourense

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.27 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst53%
Gelijkspel25%
Uitwinst23%
Market-based forecastThuiswinstTier B · 53% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst53% selection probability
Projected score2–1Celta FortunaUD Ourense
Expected goals3.27Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven63% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.0Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
53% / 25% / 23%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes UD Ourense win (22.6%)Dubbele Kans1X77.4%1.29
Boven 63% · Onder 37%Goals 2.5Boven63%1.59
Ja 65% · Nee 35%Beide teams scorenJa65%1.54
3.27 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
8.0 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin12.0%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimGeen
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Celta Fortuna win53%1.891.6753.4%
Gelijkspel25%4.003.6024.8%
UD Ourense win23%4.354.1021.8%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Celta Fortuna1.95

Thuis share of expected goals 59.6%

Total expected goals3.27Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 63% · Onder 37%

UD Ourense1.32

Uit share of expected goals 40.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 65% · Nee 35%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Celta Fortuna

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

UD Ourense

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld4Wins1Drawn1Losses2Punten4

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
23%
10
Points from supplied form
4
1.95
Expected goals
1.32
Celta FortunaUD Ourense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Celta Fortuna signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Ourense signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Celta Fortuna vs UD Ourense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Celta Fortuna gewonnen 53%,Gelijkspel 25%,UD Ourense gewonnen 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.27 · Boven 2.5 63% · Current selection Boven