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CHE Switzerland Super League · Kamp ·

Lugano vs St Gallen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.35 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier42%
Uavgjort30%
Borteseier28%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier42% selection probability
Projected score1–1LuganoSt Gallen
Expected goals2.35Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under58% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
42% / 30% / 28%KampresultatHjemmeseier42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes St Gallen win (27.5%)Dobbel sjanse1X72.5%1.38
Over 42% · Under 58%Goals 2.5Under58%1.72
Ja 47% · Nei 53%Begge lag scorerNei53%1.89
2.35 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.1 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Lugano win42%2.38
Uavgjort30%3.33
St Gallen win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lugano1.40

Hjemme share of expected goals 59.6%

Total expected goals2.35Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 42% · Under 58%

St Gallen0.95

Borte share of expected goals 40.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nei 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Lugano

2.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Poeng12

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

St Gallen

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
28%
12
Points from supplied form
10
1.40
Expected goals
0.95
LuganoSt Gallen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lugano signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02St Gallen signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Lugano vs St Gallen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lugano vunnet 42%,Uavgjort 30%,St Gallen vunnet 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.35 · Over 2.5 42% · Current selection Under