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CHN China Super League · Kamp ·

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–13.59 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier65%
Uavgjort20%
Borteseier16%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 65% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier65% selection probability
Projected score2–1Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Expected goals3.59Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over70% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
65% / 20% / 16%KampresultatHjemmeseier65%1.54
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win (15.7%)Dobbel sjanse1X84.3%1.19
Over 70% · Under 30%Goals 2.5Over70%1.43
Ja 64% · Nei 36%Begge lag scorerJa64%1.56
3.59 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.6 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.7%Largest probability gapBeijing Guoan winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Beijing Guoan win65%1.541.4564.6%+0.4 pp
Uavgjort20%5.004.7519.7%+0.3 pp
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win16%6.256.0015.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Beijing Guoan2.40

Hjemme share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals3.59Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 70% · Under 30%

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1.19

Borte share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 64% · Nei 36%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Beijing Guoan

2.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poeng11

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

1.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poeng6

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
65%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
16%
11
Points from supplied form
6
2.40
Expected goals
1.19
Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Beijing Guoan signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Shenzhen Xinpengcheng signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk35% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 65% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Beijing Guoan vunnet 65%,Uavgjort 20%,Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vunnet 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.59 · Over 2.5 70% · Current selection Over