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CHN China Super League · Match ·

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–13.59 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile65%
Nul20%
Victoire à l’extérieur16%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 65% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile65% selection probability
Projected score2–1Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Expected goals3.59Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de70% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
65% / 20% / 16%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile65%1.54
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win (15.7%)Double chance1X84.3%1.19
Plus de 70% · Moins de 30%Goals 2.5Plus de70%1.43
Oui 64% · Non 36%Les deux équipes marquentOui64%1.56
3.59 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
10.6 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.7%Largest probability gapBeijing Guoan winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Beijing Guoan win65%1.541.4564.6%+0.4 pp
Nul20%5.004.7519.7%+0.3 pp
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win16%6.256.0015.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Beijing Guoan2.40

Domicile share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals3.59Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 70% · Moins de 30%

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1.19

Extérieur share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 64% · Non 36%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Beijing Guoan

2.20pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

1.20pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
65%
Gagné probability excluding draw
16%
11
Points from supplied form
6
2.40
Expected goals
1.19
Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Beijing Guoan signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Shenzhen Xinpengcheng signalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk35% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 65% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Beijing Guoan victoire 65%,Nul 20%,Shenzhen Xinpengcheng victoire 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.59 · Plus de 2.5 70% · Current selection Plus de