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CHN China Super League · Final ·

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Prediction review

Heim form
Final score4–0Prognose 2–1
Auswärts form
Heimsieg65%
Unentschieden20%
Auswärtssieg16%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 65% selection probability
Prediction Gewonnen
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg65% selection probability
Projected score2–1Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Expected goals3.59Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über70% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
65% / 20% / 16%SpielergebnisHeimsieg65%1.54
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win (15.7%)Doppelte Chance1X84.3%1.19
Über 70% · Unter 30%Goals 2.5Über70%1.43
Ja 64% · Nein 36%Beide Teams treffenJa64%1.56
3.59 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
10.6 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.7%Largest probability gapBeijing Guoan winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Beijing Guoan win65%1.541.4564.6%+0.4 pp
Unentschieden20%5.004.7519.7%+0.3 pp
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win16%6.256.0015.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Beijing Guoan2.40

Heim share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals3.59Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 70% · Unter 30%

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1.19

Auswärts share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 64% · Nein 36%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Beijing Guoan

2.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punkte11

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
65%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
16%
11
Points from supplied form
6
2.40
Expected goals
1.19
Beijing GuoanShenzhen Xinpengcheng
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Beijing Guoan signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Shenzhen Xinpengcheng signalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk35% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 65% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Beijing Guoan Gewinn 65%,Unentschieden 20%,Shenzhen Xinpengcheng Gewinn 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.59 · Über 2.5 70% · Current selection Über