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ENG England Championship · Kamp ·

Stoke vs Swansea

Archived pre-match prediction

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.26 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier35%
Uavgjort31%
Borteseier34%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier35% selection probability
Projected score1–1StokeSwansea
Expected goals2.26Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under61% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei54% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
35% / 31% / 34%KampresultatHjemmeseier35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.8%)Dobbel sjanse1269.2%1.45
Over 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Ja 46% · Nei 54%Begge lag scorerNei54%1.85
2.26 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.5 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Stoke win35%2.86
Uavgjort31%3.23
Swansea win34%2.94

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Stoke1.14

Hjemme share of expected goals 50.4%

Total expected goals2.26Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 39% · Under 61%

Swansea1.12

Borte share of expected goals 49.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nei 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Stoke

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Swansea

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
35%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
34%
7
Points from supplied form
10
1.14
Expected goals
1.12
StokeSwansea
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Stoke signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Swansea signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Stoke vs Swansea FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Stoke vunnet 35%,Uavgjort 31%,Swansea vunnet 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.26 · Over 2.5 39% · Current selection Under